On the question of political violence, elections, statements and humiliation: a short treatise

By Pride Mkono

On Sunday, October 16, 2022, social media platforms were awash with harrowing images of women stripped to their undergarments after being physically abused by suspected Zanu PF thugs. The women are from ward 2, Matobo South constituency in Matabeleland South province and were part of the opposition CCC campaign team gulvanising support for their council candidate, Sindiso Ngwenya. The humiliation suffered by these innocent women peacefully exercising their fundamental rights to political affiliation, and free expression and assembly, raises critical questions about the political environment in the country, paranoia of the ruling party and ultimately whether the mainstream opposition should participate in the 2023 elections at all. In this treatise I illuminate on these questions and offer scenarios which can be useful to those striving for democracy in Zimbabwe.
A brief history of electoral bloodbath
The ruling Zanu PF party has always viewed electoral contests in the lens of warfare and since independence it has maimed citizens, killed real and perceived political opponents and destroyed their property. Zimbabwe’s post independence genocide, Gukurahundi, can also be seen in the context of Zanu PF’s thirst for electoral dominance and one party State. It sought to subdue the opposition, ZAPU, by use of violence so as to control the politics of Midlands and Matabeleland provinces, this uncanny political ambition led to the brutal death of some 20 thousand citizens. Throughout the 1990s, Zanu PF continued its use of violence against the opposition and it would intensify in the 2000s when a new formidable opposition, the MDC, entered the political space. This violence would continue and reach a horrific climax in 2008 presidential election run-off where over 250 opposition supporters were murdered in cold blood, thousands displaced and property worth hundreds of thousands of dollars destroyed. It was partly this wave of violence which forced SADC to intervene and push for dialogue which resulted in a power sharing agreement between the opposition formations and the ruling party. The subsequent 2013 and 2018 elections saw a comparable decline in incidents of political violence, though widespread intimidation persisted. It was on August 1, 2018, a day after the general elections, that the coup government of President Emmerson Mnangagwa showed its true colours by deploying the army into the streets and killing 6 civilians in cold blood. Despite recommendations of a sham commission of inquiry, the Monthlante Commission, victims are still crying for justice.

Sharpening hatchets ahead of 2023
With the 2023 general elections fast approaching amid socio-economic collapse and polls by reputable institutions like Afrobarometer showing a tightly contested Presidential and parliamentary race, the ruling party has engaged its default settings of using brute force. By-elections which have been held since March 22, 2022 have seen the opposition CCC gaining ground despite having no structures or funding, which worries the ruling party. Significant gains have been made in rural areas, especially Matabeleland South,where the opposition has always lost narrowly and wherein a resounding victory in the presidential and parliamentary races would significantly tilt the balance of power in the 2023 elections. The grim and realistic chance of loss of power has rattled the fractious ruling party to the core and it has resorted to default settings of violence. It is in this context that the violence characterising the by-elections, like the humiliation of women and destruction of property in Matobo South ward 2, must be seen. With the odds of the 2023 elections hanging by the balance and President Mnangagwa paranoid that some in his own party may sabotage him, all ingredients for a widespread bloodbath are on the menu.
Pro-democracy responses
The opposition, civil society and other pro-democracy forces have responded to the orgy of violence in the same jejune ways of issuing rehashed statements condemning the acts. Understandably, an vicious and armed authoritarian regime like Zanu PF offers little by way of what can be done, especially in response to State sponsored violence. However, for the political opposition it is inadequate, even self defeating, to issue statements as if they are observers to their own mutilation and abuse. A more nuanced, tough and deterrent political response is required. Statements read in the comfort of Harare boulevards would do nothing to deter Zanu PF machete totting thugs from attacking their supporters. The opposition must show conviction and spine in its responses. Everyone, including their supporters, is tired of empty statements when their life and limb is at stake.
Scenarios for 2023
Given the foregoing and existing empirical evidence showing that 2023 will be a violent election, it would be disastrous for those advancing democracy not to plan accordingly. I therefore provide three scenarios, as informed by existing realities which are observable by all in the political context. The first two are premised on the basis that the opposition participates in the 2023 elections which as I have demonstrated will be violent and the last is premised on that they participate but in a completely different dimension.

1. Zero sum plot

Under this scenario, the mainstream opposition will participate in elections and Zanu PF will unleash violence, bar international and some domestic observers, manipulate and rig the election. The aftermath would leave opposition supporters murdered, displaced, maimed and dispossessed of their possessions. Regional bodies will remain deafeningly silent while the international community, read Western powers, will condemn the election as a charade and perhaps impose more sanctions or add individuals to the existing list. The opposition will obtain a few seats at council and parliamentary level, a petition challenging the presidential results may even be filed but ultimately Zanu PF will retain two thirds majority in parliament and the presidency. This scenario doesn’t advance democracy nor does it strengthen the opposition’s base. In simple terms, Zanu PF will have its way and life as we know it will go on.

2. Equal and opposite reaction

In this scenario, the opposition is somehow able to gulvanise its structures and mount a serious campaign of civil defiance and self defense. It would therefore escalate conflict to a new level where even those in the ruling party do not feel safe. Under such conditions, the regional bodies and neighboring countries would not afford to remain silent. An implosion in Zimbabwe would have regional ramifications at a time of instability and chaos in the region. International actors would also be forced to take stern measures to reign in the moribund regime. This is a scenario where everything will be so fluid and would inevitable be marked by political instability as an opposition under attack mobilise self defense and protection of their vote. It would be a a confrontation of the political gladiators at all levels resulting in nothing short of a negotiated political settlement. The practicality of this situation depends on the resolve and resources available in the opposition. Are their leaders willing to go that route and get out of their comfort zones? That is a question for all, including those in the opposition, to answer.

3. Boycott and counter mass mobilisation for peace and reforms

Under this scenario, the opposition boycotts the election in respect of fielding candidates. Any election will become a referendum against the system with the opposition mobilising voters to use the election to spoil the ballots and call for peace. It would be unsettling for President Mnangagwa to lose to spoiled votes because the opposition refused a violent election without reforms In addition, the pro-democracy movement would launch a national, regional and global campaign for restoration of democracy in Zimbabwe and an end to violence. Such a campaign will increase the costs of authoritarian rule and further isolate the regime until it starts genuine political and economic reforms. This calls for unity of purposes and mass withdrawal of consent and recognition of the regime. Parliamentarians and councillors of the mainstream opposition must withdraw from office. There is little parliament is contributing to the struggle for democracy currently, repressive laws are being passed, opposition parliamentarians jailed without trial at Chikurubi while others send distress calls while being chased like game in the bushes of Matobo. Councillors and Mayors are recalled and expelled without hearings or due process and to expect that in the few months before the polls they will contribute to service delivery challenges facing urbanites is pie in the sky. This is another decisive scenario which can expose the regime and charter a path towards democracy.
In offering these scenarios and dissecting the issue of violence, I am encouraging public debate rather than being prescriptive. However, this is a matter of urgency which should be treated with the seriousness it deserves. No one benefits from a violent sham of an election and the opposition needs to make a decision as to the course of action it chooses.

Pride Mkono is a social justice activists, political analyst and strategist. He writes here in his personal capacity and can be contacted at pridemkono@gmail.com.