#Zimbabwe; let us talk election rigging: a short treatise

By Pride Mkono

In 2023, the country will have a general election. Since 2000 all general elections have been disputed. At the centre of these, seemingly unending, disputes are allegations of massive rigging of elections as well as political violence by the State and ruling ZANU PF party apparatchiks. Given this simple historical reality and the deep public suspicion about the independence of the electoral management body, the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC), public opinion is already pointing towards a rigged election even before the first ballot is cast in the 2023 election. In this treatise I seek to elucidate on the questions: How are elections rigged? What is rigging anyway? And who rigs elections?. This is not a new undertaking and therefore I am adding my thoughts to an ongoing debate in Zimbabwe’s body politic. I acknowledge previous works by esteemed scholars of politics like Prof. Masipula Sithole and Dr. Philan Zamchiya. I highly recommend all those interested in the subject to read their works. Now let me skin the proverbial skunk!

Terms matter

The first point I want to put across is that terms matter. If we say elections are rigged we are saying a series of illegal steps have been undertaken to increase the vote share of one candidate or suppress that of another. The process is also called election fraud or manipulation. From the terms, it is important to note that this is usually a process and not an event, moreso under competitive authoritarian regimes like our own. In simple words, elections are not just rigged on voting day, in fact you can have a massively rigged election without incident on voting day.

How then are elections rigged?

There is no straight forward answer, therefore I will give some examples most Zimbabweans can make sense of.

1. Ballot staffing

Ballot staffing is a simple and direct method of rigging. This is when the electoral management body or sections of it out of malicious intent or under instruction from a political party or actors simply staffs ballot boxes with extra votes for a specific candidate so that they win. It is crude and often happens when the other party or candidate has no agents or when they have been neutralized. It is the easiest to detect for a robust political organisation and the hardest to hide for the would be manipulator. This is because in polling stations where a party or candidate suspects that staffing is likely to occur they can increase monitoring and deploy their best agents. It also easier to request reopening of ballot boxes and audit election residue tallies. This later strategy works because the staffing is usually done to cover for a specific number which will guarantee a winning margin and is often at variance with registered voters or ballots issued. For example, in 2018 they were some 10 polling stations in Zaka West which ad identical polling results, a misnomer potting to high possibility of staffing.

2. Gerrymandering

Zimbabwe is currently undergoing a delimitation exercise which will produce new election boundaries. This process is a ‘window of opportunity’ for those intent on rigging by redrawing election boundaries to specifically demarcate voters in ways which favour a candidate or party. The insidious process is called gerrymandering. An example of gerrymandering was the creation of a the vast Chirumhanzu-Zibagwe constituency ahead of the 2008 harmonized election. The motivating factor was that the now President, Emmerson Mnangagwa, had lost successive parliamentary elections in the opposition inclined Kwekwe constituency. To guarantee him victory, a vast and meandering constituency stretching from Kwekwe to Chivhu was created taking all wards where the ruling party is very strong. Ahead of 2023, the same strategy maybe used to create an electoral map that gives the ruling Zanu PF a guaranteed constitutional majority in parliament for the next 10 years. The solution is to be vigilant in challenging the delimitation process and identifying constituents of interests who can push for massive voter registration across borderline constituencies and wards.

_*3. Margin of terror*_ (Masipula Sithole; 2000)
This is a theory of rigging advanced by Prof. Masipula Sithole in his analysis of the results of the 2000 parliamentary election in which the opposition, MDC, lost by a narrow majority to Zanu PF. In simple terms, this is where there is such violence and intimidation during the election period so much that it affects the outcome of the election itself. Voters will be so intimidated and or battered that they vote in a specific way to avoid further injury to themselves, their property and or loved ones. It is a tactic which the ruling Zanu PF party has implemented with ruthless cunningness. Successive elections since independence have been headlined by bouts of political violence targeting internal and external opponents. Therefore, the margin of terror refers to the amount of votes which can be ‘harvested’ as a direct result of political violence from those simply wanting ‘all of it to go away and return to normal life.’ Such votes also include the number of those assumed not to be voting for a specific candidate or party who would have been displaced as a result of violence.

4. Media manipulation and propaganda

Information is power, mass misinformation is even more powerful. Election riggers also use mass media, including social media, to push their agenda. The process involves mass propaganda demonizing a specific candidate or party, stocking hate to deepen existing divisions in social groups and rousing the darkest of fears in people’s collective imagination. With public media and social media platforms working on full throttle each day to spread this, voters maybe caused to vote in specific ways ahead of their preferences. Zimbabwe’s public media and ruling party functionaries on social media (popularly known as Varakashi) have implemented this strategy over almost all elections they have been available to the ruling party.

5. Voter registration and voters roll manipulation

The election, at least in theory, is ultimately decided by those who show up and vote on the day. This makes voter registration and the subsequent register of voters vital to an election, and obviously of strategic importance to the riggers. By suppressing voter registration in perceived opposition strongholds and enforcing massive registration in its own, the ruling party can guarantee the creation of a voters roll which gives it a majority in the presidential, parliamentary and local authorities elections. Zimbabwe’s elections are now polling station based meaning that voter registration and the voters roll can be scientifically analysed and manipulated to provide a predetermined outcome without beating a single person. This is an important area of manipulation hence ZEC has been very vociferous in its denial of making the document available to election stakeholders. This already points to ongoing rigging of elections whose outcome will be announce following a ‘smooth’ election day event.

Dear reader, election rigging is a complex affair and the riggers will not rely on just one of these strategies but rather a cocktail. It involves so many pieces and intrigues that it cannot be summarized effectively into a single write up like this. The purpose however is to contribute to public debate on the quality of our elections. By exposing as many as possible the sites and methods of rigging, we also enhance our collective awareness and ability to try and counter them. Ultimately free, fair and credible elections are important to the winners so they get legitimacy and also for national development, unity and security. A rigged election is a poisoned chalice, in the long term it kills the riggers!

Pride Mkono is a political analyst and strategist. He writes here in his personal capacity, follow him on Twitter @MkonoPride and can be contacted on pridemkono@gmail.com.