#Zimbabwe 2023 elections; violence, manipulation and financing: A short treatise

By Pride Mkono

I have written before about the options of the opposition heading into 2023 given the violent political environment created by ZANU PF in the recent by-elections. I opined that it is highly likely that the 2023 elections will be more violent and largely manipulated. I also suggested that the opposition should take bold steps to counter ZANU PF by immediately withdrawing from councils and parliament, launching a national, regional and international offensive to push for electoral reforms and when minimum standards are not met, mobilizing for an election boycott and mass spoiling of ballots.

After the article I had several productive engagements, public and private, on my submission. In one private conversation I had occasion to engage with a high ranking CCC official who told me that the option I had preferred was a no brainer for them. I will quote the official, “…boycotting elections is not an option. We will perish completely; we need the finances and platforms which come with parliament and council seats. So we are going into 2023, with or without reforms (emphasis mine), for our political survival.” It was a frank conversation which I enjoyed and partly am using this treatise to further contexualise the 2023 plebiscite and what it will mean for democracy, and political and socio-economic stability. I will specifically focus on violence, manipulation and electoral financing.

The ugly ghost of political violence
There is an almost fateful admission from across political parties, civil society, the church and ordinary citizens that the 2023 general election is going to be violent. Reputable human rights monitoring organisations like the Zimbabwe Peace Project have consistently issued reports showing that politically motivated violence is on the rise. The organization has demonstrated that top on the list of perpetrators are ruling ZANU PF party activists and state security agents. A deeper analysis of the by-election results show that overall, where the ruling party perpetrated violence, barred opposition from effectively campaigning and intimidated voters, they won resoundingly.

This is a further incentive for ZANU PF to use violence as a campaign tool in 2023; then shamelessly deny responsibility while their hands are dripping with blood.

The mainstream opposition, CCC, has already acknowledged that the election is violent and has been on the receiving end from ZANU PF. One of their supporters was killed in cold blood in Kwekwe and the murderers are roaming free. Their campaign events in Gokwe, Chinhoyi, Matobo and Insiza among other places were violently disrupted by ZANU PF supporters. From top ranking officials to ordinary supporters, they have all been targeted in blatant acts of violence.

Beyond the same rehearsed statements of the ‘world watching’ and ‘strongly condemning the violence,’ nothing by way of counter strategies have come from the opposition. Even their evidence and documentation seems to be very weak for them to present a strong regional case to SADC and the AU, even at least to friendly countries like Zambia to call the ruling party to order.

As I have noted above, ZANU PF has incentive to perpetrate violence because it has brought in electoral dividends now and in the past. Rationale economic theory tells us that this positive reinforcement will motivate future behavior. For the opposition and the broader pro-democracy movement, the biggest worry is that violence affects the effective participation of two large demographic groups, women and youths. Research by leading women and youths organisations, Women’s Academy for Leadership and Political Excellence and the Youth Empowerment and Transformation Trust respectively, show a strong correlation between limited participation of women and youths in elections and violence. In rural areas, these demographic groups are coerced to vote for the ruling party while youths are dragged into ‘bases’ where they are forced to perpetrate violence against the opposition supporters. In urban areas, violence results in apathy which affects overall national voter turnout and ultimately benefits the ruling status quo.

A buffet of manipulation

Violence is one tool which may not always be relied upon to deliver the expected results. For a paranoid and shaky ZANU PF to be sure of retaining the presidency and the constitutional majority in parliament, they will implement a range of manipulative tactics. The first and obvious could be the ongoing delimitation exercise which may see ZEC gerrymandering to produce an electoral map whose voting patterns give ZANU PF a guaranteed two thirds majority in parliament and a minimum of 53% for their presidential candidate. What this would mean is that we would have entered an effective one party state by the stroke of the delimitation pen.

The second has always been ongoing manipulation of the voters roll through voter suppression and inflation. Whereas in urban strongholds of the opposition voter registration is suppressed and voters moved in large numbers across polling stations, in rural areas numbers are inflated leading to fears of double voting and outright ballot stuffing. Polling stations are often increased in very remote areas where the opposition has no capacity to deploy agents and the ruling party gets outrageous numbers in such polling stations.

Even these two manipulations are not enough, so the ruling party will also bank on the highly compromised judiciary to do its bidding. The 2018 Chegutu West constituency case is a case in point. ZEC deliberately declared that the losing ZANU PF candidate had won, and then admitted its mistake and directed parties to the Electoral Court. In Court, the winning opposition candidate’s case was thrown out on account of technicalities of the filing process and then the ruling party losing candidate, Dexter Nduna, was sworn in, helping ZANU PF attain, the much coveted, two thirds majority. This ‘Nduna’ formula will certainly be relied on in 2023 for those tight race contests and with devastating consequences for representative democracy.

US$150 million dollar war chest

If there is anything we have learnt since independence is that ZANU PF may fail everything but it is prepared to go to any extent to retain power; even at the cost of collapsing the nation. For the record, the party has consistently abused taxpayers’ money and government property for its partisan political gains. This state-party conflation now has a new dimension of national, regional and international private sector interests. These powerful cartels get state tenders, mining rights and tax holidays in return for financing ruling party election campaigns and it is not just the big cartels but even smaller ones. Groups of artisanal and small scale miners, medium sized companies getting road refurbishment tenders or supplying government parastatals and even cross border traders, are all paying protection fees to the ZANU PF electoral machinery.

Even government departments and ministries have not been spared, at the recent congress they were charged between US$3000 to US$6000 for exhibition. ZANU PF also has strong relations with China which has built the New Parliament that will be used post 2023 elections. With such kind of an investment, China is likely to follow it all up with election finance contributions for the ruling party. The Asian giant certainly did not invest in that building with projections of a potentially hostile opposition taking over the government in Zimbabwe.
With all these factors on the table, ZANU PF has publicly declared that it will pour an astounding US$150 million into the 2023 campaign. In addition, it is reported that the party currently has a fleet of 531 vehicles at its disposal and one can argue that these will be increased. While we know that ZANU PF is a corrupt party and most likely much of these resources will go into private pockets, such a war chest is something to worry about. Vote buying has been one of the pillars of ZANU PF campaigns over the years and with a US$150 million junket bag, we will witness vote buying at a whole new level. Without budget caps in our elections, even this colossal amount can be surpassed in ZANU PF’s unrelenting quest for retaining power for private gain.

From the foregoing, it is apparent that prospects of a democratic breakthrough in 2023 are slim. It is almost certain that the election will be violent and heavily manipulated in favour of the ruling ZANU PF party. Way after the election, it us the ordinary people who will pick up the bill for financing this brutal crusade for power retention. It will come in the form of low salaries for civil servants, tax breaks for the private sector, mining concessions for the Chinese and other foreigners and austerity measures. Education and health will remain comatose, we will become poorer, repression will increase and democratic breakthrough elusive. Perhaps the time to change the narrative is starting to build a collective force now or we all perish!

Pride Mkono is a political analyst and strategist, he writes here in his own capacity. You can contact him on pridemkono@gmail.com.